Monday, September 22, 2014

Brewers Playoff Chances In 2014 | Cardinals Take Over The NL Central



Brewers Playoff Chances 2014
The Milwaukee Brewers entered this last week looking to make one last gaps at getting back into the postseason picture. They had six road games, three in St. Louis, and three in Pittsburgh. They needed to win a bare minimum four out of six to stay in it, and most likely five out of six. Instead, they lost four out of six, and probably should have lost them all if you look at the two games they won. The offense has gone completely silent. This is interesting because all of us analysts to begin the season said what will get the Brewers this season is that they will not hit some, but not enough to overcome their bullpen problems. However, we didn’t think they would go silent like this. More on that next week. For now, let’s take a look into the postseason now that the picture is clearing up.

For as bad the Brewers meltdown was, the Oakland Athletics was far worse. In fact, advanced analytics say that Oakland’s collapse is the worst statistically in the live ball era. Wow. Still Oakland holds the first spot in the wild card play in game. That is the good news. The bad news is that both the Royals and the Mariners sit just one game back of them. It will likely be Jon Lester who goes in the wild card play in game for Oakland if they get there. If the Mariners get one of the spots, Felix Hernandez will start the game for them. If Detroit ends up in the wild card play in game, it will be David Price or Max Scherser that goes for them. If Kansas City ends up in the wild card play in game, big game James Shields will go for them. No worries for Baltimore or the Los Angeles Angels though. They both won their divisions last week and are sitting pretty entering the postseason.

Over in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals have taken control of the NL Central and have secured a postseason spot. Pittsburgh sits three games behind them but holds that second wild card spot by 4.5 games over Milwaukee. At this point, it looks as if Pittsburgh will play San Francisco in the wild card play in game and the only two teams who can mathematically interfere with that are Atlanta and Milwaukee. The Braves are about mathematically out of it, as they have just a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs at this point as one more loss or win by either Pittsburgh or San Francisco will finish them off. The Brewers sit 4.5 out of the wild card play in game and have just a 3.0% chance of making the postseason. Washington holds the best record in the National League a 14.5 game lead in their own division, which obviously means they won it a long time ago. In fact, the National have a chance largest margin of victory in terms of games won by in the division since the 2002 Atlanta Braves who won the NL East by 19 games.  

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